China is likely to announce additional stimulus policies, including extra fiscal support, targeted monetary easing and stronger consumption-boosting initiatives, to put its economic growth on a more solid footing, as the country's top leadership usually convenes a high-level meeting centered on economic issues around the end of April, analysts said.

分析人士表示，中國有望宣布更多刺激政策，包括增加財政支持、定向貨幣寬鬆以及更有力的促消費舉措，以進一步夯實經濟增長基礎。中國最高領導層通常會在4月底左右召開一次以經濟問題為中心的高層會議。

The tone-setting meeting would be an important occasion for China's policymakers to reassess the fast-paced developments in the trade war initiated by Washington against Beijing over the past month, and to formulate offsetting policies in response, they added.

他們補充道，此次定調會議將成為中國政策制定者重新評估過去一個月華盛頓對北京發起的貿易戰快速發展態勢，並制定相應政策的重要契機。

"While the 5.4 percent GDP growth rate in the first quarter is a good start, key indicators like the consumer price index and producer price index suggest that weakness in domestic demand still persists," said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities.

國盛證券首席經濟學家熊園表示：“雖然第一季度GDP增長率達到5.4%是一個良好的開端，但消費者價格指數和生產者價格指數等關鍵指標表明，國內需求仍然疲軟。”

The impact of the tariffs by the United States, which is expected to materialize more visibly in the second quarter, further underscores the urgency for policymakers to ramp up supportive efforts, Xiong said.

熊園表示，預計美國加征關稅的影響將在第二季度更加明顯，這進一步凸顯了政策制定者加大支持力度的緊迫性。

China's top leadership has suggested on various occasions that the country has ample capability to roll out new policy measures as needed, to address the rising uncertainties in the external environment.

中國高層領導已多次表示，中國有足夠的能力根據需要推出新的政策措施，以應對外部環境中日益增加的不確定性。

Premier Li Qiang said on April 17 during a study session held by the State Council—the country's Cabinet—that at critical moments, the government must act swiftly to deploy policy tools across various fronts in order to generate positive market expectations.

4月17日，李強總理在國務院舉行的一次學習會議上表示，在關鍵時刻，政府必須迅速行動，綜合運用各種政策工具，以創造積極的市場預期。

Analysts expect that the end-April meeting is poised to introduce significant fiscal stimulus measures, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in scale.

分析人士預計，4月底的會議將推出重大財政刺激措施，規模可能超過1萬億元人民幣（1370億美元）。

"We expect incremental funds of 1.5 trillion yuan, or 1 percent of GDP, on top of the budget approved earlier this year. End-demand, especially consumption, should be more a focus than investment this time, given the nature of the tariff shock," Citi analysts said in a report on Monday.

花旗分析師週一在一份報告中表示：“我們預計，在年初批準的預算基礎上，新增資金將達到1.5萬億元人民幣，占GDP的1%。鑒於關稅衝擊的性質，此次應該更多地關注終端需求，尤其是消費，而非投資。”

China Galaxy Securities also said on Sunday in a report that the size of the new fiscal stimulus measures could be around 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan, with a particular emphasis on further strengthening policies to stimulate consumption.

中國銀河證券週日也在一份報告中表示，新的財政刺激措施規模可能在1.5萬億至2萬億元人民幣左右，尤其強調進一步加強刺激消費的政策。

In particular, with the goal of better offsetting the slowdown in external demand, the overall fiscal budget for consumption-boosting measures this year might be increased from the initially planned 300 billion yuan to a range of 700 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan, said Feng Lin, executive director of the research and development department at Golden Credit Rating International.

東方金誠國際信用評估有限公司研究發展部執行總監馮琳表示，為了更好地抵消外部需求放緩的影響，今年用於刺激消費措施的財政總預算可能會從最初計劃的3000億元人民幣增加到7000億至1萬億元人民幣。

China's annual exports to the US have been around $500 billion in recent years, which is equivalent to 7-8 percent of the China's domestic consumer goods consumption, according to Feng.

馮琳表示，近年來，中國對美年出口額約為5000億美元，相當於中國國內消費品消費的7%至8%。

"This means that as long as domestic consumption is effectively stimulated, China is capable of absorbing the decline in exports to the US. Before the pandemic, the normal growth rate of the country's total retail sales of consumer goods was between 8 and 9 percent," Feng said.

“這意味著，只要有效刺激國內消費，中國就有能力消化對美出口的下滑。疫情爆發前，中國社會消費品零售總額的正常增長率在8%到9%之間，”馮琳表示。

Notably, any major fiscal policy in China requires going through legislative procedures. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which has the power to approve budget adjustments, is scheduled to meet in Beijing from Sunday to Wednesday.

值得注意的是，中國任何重大財政政策都需要經過立法程序。擁有預算調整審批權的全國人大常委會計劃於本週日到週三在北京召開會議。

"If any fiscal resolution indicated by the upcoming meeting is approved by the NPC Standing Committee, it would buttress Beijing's determination to achieve growth despite the trade hardships," Citi said.

花旗銀行表示：“如果即將召開的全國人大常委會會議中提出的任何財政決議獲得批準，這將堅定中國政府在貿易摩擦中實現增長的決心。”

Even if the upcoming meeting and the NPC Standing Committee session greenlight new fiscal stimulus measures, analysts said the details and timeline of the rollouts would be determined in a flexible manner, depending on the evolving economic dynamics.

分析人士表示，即使即將召開的全國人大常委會會議和全國人大常委會會議批準新的財政刺激措施，這些措施的具體細節和時間表也將根據不斷變化的經濟形勢靈活確定。

For the previously announced government bonds in March, the country is expected to accelerate their issuance in the second quarter, and expedite the utilization of these funds to support concrete projects, said Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities.

中國銀河證券首席經濟學家章俊表示，對於此前宣布的3月份國債發行，預計國家將在第二季度加快發行，並加快資金用於支持具體項目。

The anticipated introduction of the extra fiscal stimulus measures and accelerated implementation of the existing ones would "create a window of opportunity" for a corresponding level of liquidity support from the monetary policy side, Zhang said.

章俊表示，預期中的額外財政刺激措施將出臺，現有措施也將加快落實，這將為貨幣政策層面提供相應流動性支持“創造機會窗口”。

China's central bank is expected to employ a combination of both quantitative and structural policy tools, with a reserve requirement ratio cut of around 20 basis points likely to be implemented on the heels of the end-April meeting, followed by a potential interest rate reduction around June. The government is also expected to introduce a range of structural monetary policies aimed at providing targeted relief to the foreign trade sector, as well as bolstering consumer demand and technological innovation, Zhang added.

預計中國央行將結合運用數量型和結構性政策工具，在4月底會議后可能實施約20個基點的降準，隨后可能在6月左右再度降息。章俊補充道，預計政府還將推出一系列結構性貨幣政策，旨在為外貿行業提供定向紓困，並提振消費需求和技術創新。

Citi said in its report that, "Finding patience to play the long game, the end-April meeting will stick to the policy framework of 'high-quality development' and will not take an all-out approach."

花旗在其報告中表示：“4月底的會議將秉持耐心，著眼長遠，堅持‘高質量發展’的政策框架，不會采取全面舉措。”

stimulus

/ˈstɪmjələs/

n.刺激（措施）；促進因素

reassess

/ˌriːəˈses/

v.重新評估；重新考慮

buttress

/ˈbʌtrəs/

v.支持；加強

liquidity

/lɪˈkwɪdəti/

n.流動性；資產變現能力