“Everything happens for a reason” might be a comforting thing to believe, but it is unlikely to make you a great decision maker. Why? Because good decision making means actively investigating multiple future possibilities. It means accepting that there are many different ways things could go, and that you can play an active role in choosing among them. To choose wisely, you need to engage in probabilistic thinking; evaluating the likeliest outcome of each possible path. This is the opposite of romanticism; it demands clear-eyed, unflinching assessment of all the ways things might go right, and all the ways they might go wrong.“任何事情都自有發生的道理”，這句話可能令人寬慰，但這無法讓您成為一個偉大的決策者。為什麼？因為好的決策意味著積極研究未來的多種可能性。這意味著要接受事情可以有許多不同的方式，並且您可以在其中選擇中扮演積極的角色。要明智地選擇，您需要參與概率思維；評估每種可能路徑的最可能結果。這與浪漫主義相反。 它要求對一切可能進行正確的方法以及它們可能出錯的所有方法進行清晰...