The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical to our professional survival and happiness. We make better decisions when we keep in mind the costs, benefits, and consequences of what we decide. In this masterclass, Lawrence H. Summers, an expert in using decision-making models, walks you through a detailed process for deciding wisely and well.
世界變得越來越具有分析性。鑒於可獲得的大量數據以及我們生活各個方面的快速變化步伐，良好的決策能力（即在做出選擇的過程中具有分析能力）對於我們的職業生存和幸福至關重要。當我們牢記決定的成本，收益和后果時，我們會做出更好的決策。在這個大師班中，使用決策模型的專家勞倫斯·薩默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）將引導您完成詳細的過程，以明智，明智地進行決策。
- 經濟學家、前美國財政部長
Making Complex Decisions: A Scientific Method, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic CouncilIn this lesson, Lawrence Summers walks you through a scientific method for making complex decisions. The key, he argues, is to think in terms of alternatives.本節課中，我們邀請到了白宮國家經濟委員會前主任勞倫斯·薩默斯。勞倫斯將向我們介紹一種科學的方法，幫助我們做出復雜決定。他認為，關鍵要多想幾個Plan B，並綜合考慮這些替代方案的可行性。
Making Complex Decisions: A Scientific Method, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic CouncilIn this lesson, Lawrence Summers walks you through a scientific method for making complex decisions. The key, he argues, is to think in terms of alternatives.本節課中，我們邀請到了白宮國家經濟委員會前主任勞倫斯·薩默斯。勞倫斯將向我們介紹一種科學的方法，幫助我們做出復雜決定。他認為，關鍵要多想幾個Plan B，並綜合考慮這些替代方案的可行性。
The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical. In this lesson, Economist Lawrence Summers explores why deciding wisely is essential to leading a good life. By the end of it, you’ll have a deeper understanding of what Summers believes to be the single greatest pitfall to analytical thinking – and its antidote.當今世界，分析正變得越來越不可或缺。我們每天都被海量數據包圍著，生活的各個方面也在快速變化，在這種情況下，做出明智決策，或者說在決策的過程中進行分析的能力至關重要。在本節課中，身為經濟學家的勞倫斯·薩默斯提到了一個問題，那就是為什麼明智決定對於過上美好的生活至關重要。
The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical. In this lesson, Economist Lawrence Summers explores why deciding wisely is essential to leading a good life. By the end of it, you’ll have a deeper understanding of what Summers believes to be the single greatest pitfall to analytical thinking – and its antidote.當今世界，分析正變得越來越不可或缺。我們每天都被海量數據包圍著，生活的各個方面也在快速變化，在這種情況下，做出明智決策，或者說在決策的過程中進行分析的能力至關重要。在本節課中，身為經濟學家的勞倫斯·薩默斯提到了一個問題，那就是為什麼明智決定對於過上美好的生活至關重要。
Making Complex Decisions: Evaluation, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explains why looking back is the best way to learn to make better decisions and why simplistic thinking about the efficacy of one’s decision-making prevents progress.在本節課中，勞倫斯·薩默斯將告訴我們，為什麼回望過去是做出更好決定的最佳方式，以及為什麼在評判一個人的決策效率時，簡單思維會阻礙進步。
Making Complex Decisions: Evaluation, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explains why looking back is the best way to learn to make better decisions and why simplistic thinking about the efficacy of one’s decision-making prevents progress.在本節課中，勞倫斯·薩默斯將告訴我們，為什麼回望過去是做出更好決定的最佳方式，以及為什麼在評判一個人的決策效率時，簡單思維會阻礙進步。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores why it’s critical to have a rational orientation to any problem. Many problems stem from having an unclear understanding of the situation at hand, Summers argues. Therefore, you must begin by defining the problem in the clearest terms possible and then ground yourself in the knowledge of your field.決策過程中，首先對問題有一個合理的定位至關重要。薩默斯認為，很多問題會產生都是因為人們對當下的情況没有一個清晰的了解。所以，解決問題的第一步，就是要以一種儘可能清晰的方式來明確這個問題，然后使用你的專業知識來解決這個問題。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores why it’s critical to have a rational orientation to any problem. Many problems stem from having an unclear understanding of the situation at hand, Summers argues. Therefore, you must begin by defining the problem in the clearest terms possible and then ground yourself in the knowledge of your field.決策過程中，首先對問題有一個合理的定位至關重要。薩默斯認為，很多問題會產生都是因為人們對當下的情況没有一個清晰的了解。所以，解決問題的第一步，就是要以一種儘可能清晰的方式來明確這個問題，然后使用你的專業知識來解決這個問題。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores two guiding principles for making and then implementing your final decision. The key is to avoid overplaying or underplaying your strategy. Learn how to think at the margin, like an economist.決策過程與實施過程中有兩條指導原則：第一，不要犯不可逆的錯誤；第二，以一種校準的方式來思考問題。關鍵點就是，既不要過度依賴你的策略，也不要思考的不週全。要學會像經濟學家一樣思考邊際這個概念。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores two guiding principles for making and then implementing your final decision. The key is to avoid overplaying or underplaying your strategy. Learn how to think at the margin, like an economist.決策過程與實施過程中有兩條指導原則：第一，不要犯不可逆的錯誤；第二，以一種校準的方式來思考問題。關鍵點就是，既不要過度依賴你的策略，也不要思考的不週全。要學會像經濟學家一樣思考邊際這個概念。
Making Complex Decisions: Special Exigencies, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council今天我們將繼續和著名經濟學家勞倫斯·薩默斯進行討論。今天的課程中，薩默斯將會告訴我們決策過程中采取科學系統的方法和保持清醒的頭腦的重要性。有一些情況下，需要我們采取一些非科學的方法來進行決策，例如招聘依靠的就是直覺和判斷力，但是在這種情況下，也要對自己的直覺和判斷有一定的把控。薩默斯認為，決策過程中，要儘可能地采取科學系統的方法。此外，應該保持一個清醒的頭腦，不要將確信的東西和希望成為現實的東西混為一談。
Making Complex Decisions: Special Exigencies, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Counci今天我們將繼續和著名經濟學家勞倫斯·薩默斯進行討論。今天的課程中，薩默斯將會告訴我們決策過程中采取科學系統的方法和保持清醒的頭腦的重要性。有一些情況下，需要我們采取一些非科學的方法來進行決策，例如招聘依靠的就是直覺和判斷力，但是在這種情況下，也要對自己的直覺和判斷有一定的把控。薩默斯認為，決策過程中，要儘可能地采取科學系統的方法。此外，應該保持一個清醒的頭腦，不要將確信的東西和希望成為現實的東西混為一談。